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The VanAurum Market Report | Public Edition (delayed 10 days) | Feb. 8, 2019




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Table of Contents




Newsfeed & Commentary



2019-02-08

5-year US Treasury Bonds under heavy buying for last 60-days
VanAurum raised attention to the net sum of up days and down days in 5-year US treasury bonds yesterday, now up 48 of the last 60 days.

This has historically boded well for 5-year treasuries over the subsequent 2-months. It has registered on only 246 days since 1988, averaging a gain of 1.48% versus the comprehensive average of 0.35%, with over 75% of those occurrences yielding returns above 0 in that period.

This would imply that we could see 5-year yields decline over the coming 8 weeks. If true, this would suggest the market is predicting a continued pause (or reversal) of the FOMC tightening cycle. It's interesting that this has occurred at roughly the same time as the blistering rally we have seen in equities. Being historically negatively correlated, this suggests the bond market isn't buying the rally unfolding in equities. Evidently, neither is Gold.

Click here for the VanAurum Analytics on this: 5-Year US Treasuries - VanAurum Analytics
Click here to see a long term chart of this dynamic: 5-Year US Treasuries long-term plot


2019-02-07

Analyzing the astounding 5-week rally in the S&P500
I was looking at the VanAurum analytics for the S&P500, and it's calling attention to the 28-day rate of change. Over the last 28 days the S&P500 has rallied 16.67%. This is definitely a rare move, with only 66 days in our data's history where this has registered. The average 6-month return when this has happened has been 24%. Click here to see these VanAurum Analytics

Now click here: S&P500 long-term history with 28-day ROC

I've marked the past occurrences going back to the 70's where the S&P500 has rallied this hard in 28-days. This has happened in 1974, 1982, 1991, 1999, twice in 2009, and 2019. All, except for the first occurrence in 2009, marked the start or resumption of a primary uptrend. None of them were forbearers of a bear market.

The S&P500 has recently been turned back from the 200-day moving average. The market action over the coming weeks will be very telling, in my opinion, as to whether or not we're headed for another major bear market. As unlikely as it might seem, history is arguing that the S&P500 might continue its rise. With that being said, there is also clear historical precedent that a retest of the lows may be in order before this happens.


2019-02-07

Emerging Market ETF (EEM) due for a consolidation/correction
The emerging market ETF EEM has pierced and moved significantly above its 80-day (~4-month) bollinger band. Click here to see this on StockCharts

This has historically been negative for forward returns as far ahead as 126-days. Whether this is the start of a new bull-run for EEM, or a bear market rally, the balance of historical occurrences is calling for a consolidation/correction. We have been eyeing this ETF for a speculative long position, as emerging markets will likely be a significant beneficiary if the Fed rolls over and begins cutting rates again.

At this juncture we are going to be patient and wait for a better entry point. To see the VanAurum analytics for this, click here: VanAurum Analytics for EEM


2019-02-06

The value of perspective
When I talk with people about VanAurum, one thing they ask me is, "Does VanAurum make stock predictions". My answer to that is always, "no" - at least not yet. Perhaps it's just a matter of semantics - but I view VanAurum as a decision support system, not the decision making entity. I created VanAurum to offer precise historical perspective on technical action in the markets. The explicit purpose of VanAurum is to advise us when the market is behaving in ways that has portended lopsided returns - up or down - in the past. From this historical context, a prediction can be made.

If you have ever watched a poker tournament on television, you'll recall that they show the hands for each player in the corner of the screen. Beside the players hand, they show the players probability of winning the hand as new cards are turned over. This is probably the best analogy I can make for VanAurum. Because market prices are determined by the buying and selling actions of a limited amount of market participants, historical perspective can be incredibly valuable in assessing trading and investment opportunities, especially during extreme price moves.

I revisited some of VanAurum's most compelling insights from the past couple months, and they have all turned out to be quite accurate. Remember, this isn't magic - VanAurum is just looking at data and saying, "Hey, I just wanted to let you know that when this has happened in the past it has resulted in higher prices a month later 70% of the time".

  • On December 1st we posted that VanAurum identified bullish price action in SIL (citing the 80-day sum of up days and down days). SIL was trading at $22 on that day and has since rallied to $27.
  • On December 15th it pointed out lopsided bullish data for XOP and the energy sector. XOP was trading around $25 then and has since rallied to $31.
  • On December 21st it pointed out the strong relationship between the selling pressure in the S&P500/Treasury Bond ratio and an imminent bounce in the S&P500, which also came to fruition.
  • On December 28th, based on the 62-day balance of power moving average, it pointed out that a rally was likely imminent in the FTSE 100. That index was at 6529 at the time and has since rallied to as high as 7000.

Again, none of these are certainties - there are no certainties in markets (like poker), but perspective and context can go a long way to making more intelligent decisions with your risk capital. One thing can we observe with VanAurum, quantitatively, is that a contrarian mindset is often justified.


2019-02-05

The death of Bitcoin has been greatly exaggerated

Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter, made a bold prediction regarding Bitcoin in an interview with popular podcast host, Joe Rogan, last week. The crux of his argument, and one that I agree with, is that the internet can viewed as its own "nation", and as such is bound to evolve its own currency over time.

There are many who think cryptocurrencies are a passing fad, destined to fade away into history with the passage of time. Although I agree with the argument that significantly more price depreciation could be ahead, Bitcoin's detractors need to face some astounding facts regarding the alternative currency:

  • The system is anti-fragile: Antifragile systems prove their resilience over time through shocks, attacks, stressors, faults, and volatility. A characteristic of "anti-fragile" systems versus "resilient" systems is that anti-fragile improve over time. Bitcoin, as a system, is undeniably getting better over time. Every time faith in the currency has been shaken, it has emerged stronger.
  • Usage is rising: Despite the horrific price correction, the number of confirmed transactions is continuing a relentless climb. The rising trend in use and transactions seems inexorable. See a chart of this here: Bitcoin confirmed transactions per day. Because Bitcoin's value is dependent on the willingness of people to use it in transactions, this trend is a direct contradiction to those who think its value will drop to zero.
  • Volatility is declining: Believe it or not, Bitcoin's volatility is declining rapidly - likely a product of increasing transaction volumes. In fact, in 2018 Bitcoin went through a 3-month stretch in the fall where the volatility was less than the broad equity markets, and at times less volatile than treasury bonds. It's still noisy, but the trend in volatility is declining.
  • Transaction costs are declining: One of the hallmark qualities of a desirable transaction medium is the friction in the transaction. Think about cash - how much does it cost you to slide someone $20 for a good or service? The answer is it costs nothing. The desirability of currency is directly proportional to the cost and effort required to use it. Click her now: Bitcoin transaction costs. Transaction costs spike periodically, but the tendency is for it to revert towards zero like a magnet. There's still work to be done in order for the network to reach a "frictionless" state like cash, but getting "close" to zero will be good enough in the future.

We don't currently own Bitcoin - our view has been that there is still more bleeding to be done to work off the excess of the mega-bubble - but the case for Bitcoin playing a role as a native internet currency is growing stronger all the time as the cryptocurrency exhibits more and more mature characteristics.


2019-02-04

Upside move in GDXJ most akin to Q1 2016

Click here now

The rally in Gold has taken GDXJ to 14% above it's 6-month upper bollinger band. This a rare event - with this condition persisting for only 46 days in GDXJ's history. Most of these days were in the Q1 2016 rally, which was a signal that a major multi-month rally was beginning, not ending.

Click here now: GDXJ Weekly Chart

On the weekly chart for GDXJ we can see a breakout occurring that looks similar to the 2016 breakout. Note the position of the 14-week RSI leading up to these breakouts. Using the 72-Day RSI as a proxy, we can confirm that the 1-year returns for GDXJ when RSI has been at those depths has been quite positive, returning 24% on average.

See the analytics for this here: 1-year returns for GDXJ when 72-Day RSI has been less than 40

Disclosure: We own long positions in GDXJ as a core portion of our portfolio


2019-02-04

PM sector needs a breather, but biggest gains are still ahead
On January 5th we wrote that the aggressiveness of the current move in Gold could take us to $1350-1375 before a correction starts. At that time Gold was trading around $1280 and we've since gone as high as $1331.

At this juncture Gold is clearly establishing a bullish posture having made two major higher lows since the bottom in December 2015 - The first higher low being in December of 2016, and the second coming in August of 2018. The upside moves off all three of these lows have been very aggressive, and it's important to maintain overall context of where we are. Gold is filling out the right side of a major head-and-shoulders bottom that started forming in 2013 - the neckline for which is in the $1350-1375 area. The macro backdrop argues strongly for an eventual upside breakout from this neckline.

The key thing to remember is that in bear regimes, the market has a tendency to surprise to the downside. In sideways regimes, markets tend to obey oscillators in a very orderly manner. In bull regimes, the market tends to surprise to the upside. Gold has transitioned from a bear market to a sideways market, and the price action suggests we are now switching from a sideways market to a bull market.

In anticipation of this we're trading this market less actively, and instead using any weakness to accumulate. On a shorter timeframe, we've seen resilience in the Gold market in the last week despite its overbought position, taking back most intraday losses.

Click here now: 126-day returns for Gold where Gold's 45-day net sum of up-days and down-days has been greater than or equal to 13.0

Although in the last 5 years this level of buying pressure has portended a short-term sell-off, it has boded well for 6-month returns - because most of the past occurrences have coincided with bull markets. My guess is that our current situation should be viewed through the lens of a bull market rather than a sideways market.


2019-02-04

Interview with Maurice Jackson at Proven & Probable
We sat down with Maurice Jackson at Proven & Probable to discuss the effects the Fed's balance sheet trajectory will have on markets. Always a pleasure speaking with Maurice.

Maurice also informed of a new blockchain based metals trading platform called Trade Wind that I think will be of interest to VanAurum members. I have no affiliation with Trade Wind, but I am definitely interested in the fusion of this technology with the metals sector. Check them out here


2019-01-26

Quantitative tightening rumour enough to send dollar tumbling
I have been writing in length about the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) trajectory being the elephant in the room that not a lot of people are discussing. At 5:30am Eastern Time on Friday, the Wall Street Journal published an article titled, "Fed Officials Weight Earlier-Than-Expected End to Bond Portfolio Runoff". They've barely put a dent in the balance sheet and they're already weighing the end of the program!

What this means, implicitly, is that the Fed will be active bidders in the market to replace maturing debt securities. This implies an expansion of the money supply. This news sent the dollar index crashing, and gold spiked to $1300 - even closing out the week firmly above $1300.

In my previous posts, I've made the argument that the dollar will suffer if the Fed is perceived as easily persuaded by markets. If this WSJ post is accurate, then this would suggest the Fed is being persuaded by the market. What's interesting is that bonds - the asset class the Fed might soon be a bidder for - sold off on the news and didn't recover throughout the day.

This is a very interesting situation and I think members should pay attention to news-items related to the Fed's balance sheet.


2019-01-25

Analyzing Gold's Golden Cross
I have read several articles in the financial media recently about Gold's "Golden Cross", or the 50-Day MA crossing above the 200-Day MA. I did a lot of algorithmic analysis of moving average cross-overs when I first started VanAurum in early 2017. The crux of successful moving average strategies lies in avoiding "whipsaw", or false signals given by a cross-over. Does it make sense that the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-Day MA is meaningful for all asset classes? History says there's something to it, but we can also use VanAurum to see if there's a better definition of a Golden Cross for Gold. It turns out there is, and I prefer to look at the signals that other's likely aren't looking at.

The essence of a golden cross is that it ushers in an uptrend with positive returns that are meaningfully different than the average returns for that asset's entire history. For this analysis we'll use a 63-day return period (1 quarter).

Case 1: 50-Day to 200-Day MA ratio greater than 1.0
Click on the above link. This is the average 63-day return for Gold when the 50-day moving average has been above the 200-day moving average. Of the ~ 11,000 day price history, almost 6000 days have been spent with the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA. The average 63-day return is 3.27%, versus 1.57% for Gold's entire history. It doesn't seem like a lot, but factoring in the number of samples the signal/noise ratio for this is quite high - coming in at 11.73. This suggests that, historically, the 63-day returns for Gold are likely to be higher than average when the 50-Day is above the 200-Day MA.

Can we do better? It turns out we can. This is a relatively easy optimization problem to solve with a computer. Historically, one of the most reliable MA cross-over signals for Gold has been the 65-Day MA crossing above the 250-Day MA. We can use VanAurum to demonstrate this as well.

Case 2: 65-Day to 250-Day MA ratio greater than 1.0
Click the link above. We can see that there are actually more occurrences (6011) of this than the 50/200 case, and the average 63-day return is 3.51%, with a signal/noise ratio of 13.538.

Let's look at whipsaw. A typical strategy to avoid whipsaw is to provide a buffer around the cross-over point. So instead of buying right at the point of cross-over, you wait until one moving average is a certain percentage above the other. We can see that providing a buffer of 3% improves the reliability of the signal.

Case 3: 65-Day to 250-Day MA ratio greater than 1.03
Click the link above. Our signal/noise ratio improves to 14.685, compared to 11.73 for the 50/200 crossover signal. The the 65/250 MA ratio, for those curious, is at 0.99 right now. Click here to see the plot of these MA ratios.


2019-01-24

Potential major opportunity developing in Platinum
Please click on this link now: Platinum charts. This is the Platinum closing price with the Platinum/Gold ratio and Platinum/Copper ratio.

Platinum is behaving in a distinctly different manner to Gold, Silver, and Palladium - and has been for quite some time now. Although I would make the argument that the collapse in Platinum relative to other metals has a lot to do with the mega-trend away from combustion-based vehicles to electrically powered vehicles, the precious metals are called precious metals for a reason. A significant decline in price for any of these metals encourages the market to explore use cases for them that would have been economically unviable otherwise.

Platinum is now testing the January 2016 low, the November 2008 low, and the June 2004 low which was the last buying opportunity before Platinum ended up going on its parabolic run. A major break of the $790 level, accompanied by high volume, could create a situation very similar to the December 2015 false breakdown that occurred before Gold had its significant Q1 2016 rally. One can imagine how many stops there might be in and around this very strong and distinct support area.

On a break of the $790 level we will be accumulators of long-term Platinum positions with stops equivalent to $720 for Platinum. If we get a meaningful confirmation that we have completed a long-term double bottom at these levels we will also be accumulators with stops at $790. I think the best way to get exposure to platinum (without taking delivery of physical bars) is through the ETF PPLT. PPLT is trading at a discount to net asset value (NAV) of about -0.8. It's also actively traded and liquid (unless you're taking massive multi-million dollar positions). Another alternative is SPPP, but it contains a lot of Palladium - so if you're looking for isolated exposure to Platinum I wouldn't recommend SPPP.

Keep an eye on this market - it has the makings of a rare opportunity for long-term investors.


2019-01-19

Action/Reaction in the markets
Nothing acts in isolation without affecting the environment around it. This is true of nature, as well as the financial markets. When you push on a wall, the wall pushes back. If you push hard enough, the wall will give. Deeply oversold markets will eventually give way to excessively overbought markets. This is because there's a finite amount of market participants, and all assets are owned at all times. When someone sells a stock, they are selling it to someone who has a more positive perspective on the prospects of that issue. Waves of selling eventually results in assets being transferred into the hands of a majority who have an expectation of appreciation - so called "tighter hands". Having just bought, tighter hands are reluctant to sell until the price moves higher. This removes supply from the market until price equalizes at a higher level (all else being equal). This is the ebb and flow of buyer/seller dynamics.

With VanAurum, we can quantify the extent to which action/reaction affects market action. More importantly, we can see over which timeframes the action/reaction principle is most significant. The S&P500 is up 14% in the last 17 trading days - one of the fastest upward moves over this timeframe on record. This is after being down over 10% over the same timeframe a few weeks prior - an outlier downside move. We can see this action/reaction pattern in longer-term historical data as well.

Click here now: 1-Year S&P500 Returns when the market is down 20% over 3-months

Since 1985, each time the market has been down 20% or more in 3-months, the one-year return prospects have been distinctly positive. This is the action/reaction principle playing out. This also makes a strong case for having a contrarian mindset. History demonstrates that in the major markets investors should, more often than not, get bullish during extreme selling and bearish during extreme buying.

Our market is not yet down 20% over a 3-month period, but any further downside will take it there. If this occurs, history tells us that shrewd long-term investors should at least be preparing to begin an accumulation program.


2019-01-17

If Gold is going to rally, it's going to rally big
Since 2005 there have been 15 periods in the Gold market where the VaiSi indicator was above 90, as it is today. All of these instances resulted in a major correction in Gold, with the exception of January 2016, September 2009, and September 2007. These three instances ushered in major upside moves in the months to come - the most significant being September 2007, where the price rallied from roughly $730 to $1000 over the following 6 months.

The major difference here is that the 2007 and 2009 breakouts were within the larger context of the major bull market that started in 2001. That being said, Gold has carved out a major basing formation that started five years ago, with symmetrical higher lows since the low in 2015.

In a recent report I advised members to "mentally prepare" for a correction in Gold miners. This correction has begun to play out, but has shown tremendous resilience - behaving more as a consolidation. This is bullish. We're still lacking significant volume, and outperformance relative to most major currencies, but I think this will come with time.

The message here is that I don't see a precedent in the historical data for a "minor" Gold rally at this juncture. We're either going to see a routine $50-75 correction, or the market is poised to breakout in a major, major way.


2019-01-15

Balance sheet "roll-off"
A few members have e-mailed me asking about the mechanics behind Fed balance sheet reduction. I've been writing about the importance of the Fed reducing its balance sheet because it represents a significant supply/demand shift in the debt markets.

Here's an article on this directly from the St. Louis Federal Reserve: How the Fed Is Reducing Its Balance Sheet—and Why

They explain that to expand the balance sheet, they were actively purchasing bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the open market. To maintain the size of the balance sheet, they would seek securities to purchase to replace maturing securities. To reduce the balance sheet, they're simply not going to replace the securities on their books as they mature. Herein lies the significant implications.

The Fed expanded its balance sheet from ~$800 billion to $4.5 Trillion in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It expanded and maintained this balance sheet by making open market purchases. This is the primary demand factor that drove interest rates on longer term debt to such absurdly low levels. With the fed rolling these securities off without replacement, they will be reducing a primary demand source for debt in the open market. At the end of this article the fed economist says the following:

“So, effectively we’re increasing the supply on the market of U.S. Treasuries,” Waller continued. “We’re letting the supply of U.S. Treasuries in the hands of the private sector grow.

The problem with this is that who is going to buy the assets that are losing their largest demand source? This is also going to create roll-over risk in the debt markets because without the Fed replacing maturing securities, debtors will have to tap the private sector to refinance their debt - likely at much higher prices (interest rates).

Justified P/E multiples of equities are tightly linked to the risk-free rate of interest - inversely. That is, as the risk-free falls P/E multiples will rise and vice-versa. The risk-free rate is rising, so we'll inevitably see a decline in P/E multiples on an aggregate basis. To sustain stock prices at these levels in a rising interest rate environment, we will need to see an acceleration in earnings growth (all else being equal) - not likely to happen this late into the business cycle.

Click here for a chart of the S&P500 overlaid with the Fed's balance sheet: Chart

If the Fed wants to "normalize" the balance sheet back to where it was, there's going to a be strong headwind for the equity markets. This is the elephant in the room - pay attention to it.


2019-01-14

Questions as equity retracement continues
The market has been rebounding from an extremely oversold condition, and has retraced roughly 38% of the decline from the ultimate 2018 peak to the December 2018 low. There is very strong overhead resistance at the 50% retracement level (~ 2650). VaiSi is suggesting there is more upside to this move, but I think there is a high probability a second leg lower will start in this quarter. The upside volume on this rebound has been poor. We'll know things are almost over when we get a significant swell in volume like we did in 2003 and 2008, as smart money begins massive accumulation programs near perceived lows.

This is where time matters for investors. Many people fear a plunge in the markets - and for good reasons. But markets tend to rebound off bottoms faster than tops begin to rollover. To illustrate this, in September 2008 the market would plunge almost 40% lower before rebounding and ultimately ending slightly higher exactly one year later. Keep that in mind if you have a time horizon more than a year.

Most, if not all, the data being generated by VanAurum for the S&P500 shows a historical precedent of higher prices 6-12 months from now. What 2008 taught us is that even if we expect S&P500 prices to be higher one year from now, there could - and likely will - be another major leg down.

I've been watching this rebound intently, and I think we're nearing the end. Interestingly, Gold has been holding up very well in its overbought condition, trading relatively sideways - perhaps in anticipation of another leg down in equities. The market-moving news cycle has been quiet recently, and you can expect that to change shortly as well.





Daily VaiSi Summary


The following chart is a summary of the VaiSi values for all the assets VanAurum analyzes, ranked highest to lowest. Learn more about Vaisi.





Summary of market extremes


Note: Click on the asset description to see the charts of VanAurum's selected market indicators

Asset Insights Description # of extremes
ETHEREUM_USD_D Etherium ($USD) 78
BITCOIN_USD_D Bitcoin ($USD) 68
NATURAL_GAS_D Natural Gas futures 57
PALLADIUM_D Palladium 41
TSX60_D the TSX 60 Index 34
RATIO_GOLD_WTI_D the Gold-WTI Crude Oil Ratio 32
RATIO_PLAT_GOLD_D the Platinum to Gold Ratio 32
LEAN_HOGS_D Lean Hog futures 29
GDX_D the VanEck senior gold miners ETF (GDX) 28
VIS_D the Vanguard industrial sector ETF (VIS) 23
SIL_D the GlobalX Funds Silver Miner ETF (SIL) 20
VNQ_D the Vanguard real estate sector ETF (VNQ) 20
GDXJ_D the VanEck junior gold miners ETF (GDXJ) 18
FEDFUNDS_30_D 30-Day Fed Funds Rate 17
FTSE100_D the FTSE 100 Index 12
NASDAQ_100_COT_FO Nasdaq 100 index committment of traders report 11
PLATINUM_COT_FO Platinum committment of traders report 11
RATIO_SIL_SILVER_D the SIL to Silver Ratio 11
VOX_D the Vanguard telecommunications sector ETF (VOX) 11
EEM_D iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 10
HYG_D the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF 10
ISRA_D the VanEck Israeli stock market index ETF 10
VWO_D the Vanguard emerging markets stock index ETF (VWO) 10
XLF_D the SPDR financial sector ETF (XLF) 9
LIVE_CATTLE_D Live cattle futures 8
ORANGE_JUICE_D Orange Juice futures 8
PLND_D the VanEck Poland stock market index ETF 8
RSX_D the VanEck Russian stock market index ETF 8
SILVER_COT_FO Silver committment of traders report 8
YC1Y1MO_D 1-year to 1-month US treasury yield spread 8
YC5Y1Y_D 5-year to 1-year US treasury yield spread 8
FXI_D the iShares China large cap ETF (FXI) 7
COPPER_COT_FO Copper committment of traders report 6
US10YR_TREASURY_YIELD_D 10-year US treasury yields 6
USD_D the US Dollar 6
VDC_D the Vanguard consumer staples sector ETF (VDC) 6
CANADIAN_DOLLAR_COT_FO Canadian Dollar committment of traders report 5
COTTON_COT_FO Cotton committment of traders report 5
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE_COT_FO Frozen orange juice committment of traders report 5
IYT_D iShares Dow Jones Transportation ETF 5
LIVE_CATTLE_COT_FO Live cattle committment of traders report 5
MEXICAN_PESO_D the Mexican Peso 5
VCR_D the Vanguard consumer discretionary sector ETF (VCR) 5
VPU_D the Vanguard electric utilities sector ETF (VPU) 5
XLB_D SPDR Materials Sector ETF 5
EURO_STOXX_50_D the Euro Stoxx 50 Index 4
VHT_D the Vanguard health care sector ETF (VHT) 4
AUD_D the Australian Dollar 3
DJIA_D the Down Jones Industrial Average 3
EM_HY_CREDIT_YIELD_D emerging market high yield credit yields 3
E-MINI RUSSELL_2000_COT_FO E-mini Russell 2000 Index committment of traders report 3
EURODOLLAR_D Eurodollar futures 3
EURO_FX_D Euro FX 3
IBB_D the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology sector ETF (IBB) 3
RATIO_SPX_UST10Y_D the S&P500 to 10-Year US treasury Ratio 3
SPX_D the S&P 500 Index 3
YC10Y3MO_D 10-year to 3-month US treasury yield spread 3
CORN_COT_FO Corn committment of traders report 2
EWA_D iShares MSCI Australia ETF 2
GOLD_COT_FO Gold committment of traders report 2
PALLADIUM_COT_FO Palladium committment of traders report 2
XOP_D the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explorers ETF 2
COFFEE_D Coffee futures 1
E-MINI_SPX_500_COT_FO S&P500 committment of traders report 1
JAPANESE_YEN_COT_FO Japanese Yen committment of traders report 1
LIT_D the GlobalX Lithium and Battery Tech ETF 1
NASDAQ100_D the Nasdaq 100 Index 1
RATIO_VDE_SPX_D the Energy Sector to S&P500 Ratio 1
TLT_D iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 1
US10YR TREASURY_REAL_YIELD_D 10-year inflation-adjusted US treasury yield 1
US5YR_TREASURY_YIELD_D 5-year US treasury yields 1
US7YR_TREASURY_YIELD_D 7-year US treasury yields 1
UST5Y_D 5-Year US Treasuries 1
US_TREASURY_BONDS_COT_FO US Treasury Bond committment of traders report 1
VDE_D the Vanguard energy sector ETF 1
VIX_COT_FO VIX committment of traders report 1
WTI_CRUDE_OIL_D WTI Crude Oil futures 1

Asset-Specific Analysis


Etherium ($USD) | 78 indicators at extremes



Bitcoin ($USD) | 68 indicators at extremes



Natural Gas futures | 57 indicators at extremes

VanAurum Analysis

VanAurum has identified a significant relationship between this signal and one or more of the 2-week, 2-month, or 6-month returns for at least one asset. These are shown below, along with the analytics for each:


NATURAL_GAS_D
10-day returns for Natural Gas futures where Natural Gas futures' 5-day to 50-day moving average ratio has been less than or equal to 0.782038285633457
Signal: -6.79




Palladium | 41 indicators at extremes

VanAurum Analysis

VanAurum has identified a significant relationship between this signal and one or more of the 2-week, 2-month, or 6-month returns for at least one asset. These are shown below, along with the analytics for each:


GOLD_D
42-day returns for Gold where Palladium's 60-day net sum of up-days and down-days has been greater than or equal to 18.0
Signal: -8.77

PALLADIUM_D
126-day returns for Palladium where Palladium's 100-day net sum of up-days and down-days has been greater than or equal to 26.0
Signal: -10.39

RSX_D
126-day returns for the VanEck Russian stock market index ETF where Palladium's 100-day net sum of up-days and down-days has been greater than or equal to 26.0
Signal: -19.36

SILVER_D
126-day returns for Silver where Palladium's 60-day net sum of up-days and down-days has been greater than or equal to 18.0
Signal: -8.75




the TSX 60 Index | 34 indicators at extremes

VanAurum Analysis

VanAurum has identified a significant relationship between this signal and one or more of the 2-week, 2-month, or 6-month returns for at least one asset. These are shown below, along with the analytics for each:


CAD_D
126-day returns for the Canadian Dollar where the TSX 60 Index's 30-day rate of change has been greater than or equal to 0.12121212
Signal: 6.03

WTI_CRUDE_OIL_D
42-day returns for WTI Crude Oil futures where the TSX 60 Index's 31-day rate of change has been greater than or equal to 0.10558639
Signal: 10.48




the Gold-WTI Crude Oil Ratio | 32 indicators at extremes

VanAurum Analysis

VanAurum has identified a significant relationship between this signal and one or more of the 2-week, 2-month, or 6-month returns for at least one asset. These are shown below, along with the analytics for each:


FXI_D
126-day returns for the iShares China large cap ETF (FXI) where the Gold-WTI Crude Oil ratio's 60-day to 100-day moving average ratio has been greater than or equal to 1.1079777634259
Signal: -13.73

GDX_D
126-day returns for the VanEck senior gold miners ETF (GDX) where the Gold-WTI Crude Oil ratio's 60-day to 100-day moving average ratio has been greater than or equal to 1.1079777634259
Signal: -36.72

GOLD_D
42-day returns for Gold where the Gold-WTI Crude Oil ratio's 60-day to 100-day moving average ratio has been greater than or equal to 1.1079777634259
Signal: -12.48

RSX_D
42-day returns for the VanEck Russian stock market index ETF where the Gold-WTI Crude Oil ratio's 60-day to 100-day moving average ratio has been greater than or equal to 1.1079777634259
Signal: 14.69

VDE_D
126-day returns for the Vanguard energy sector ETF where the Gold-WTI Crude Oil ratio's 60-day to 100-day moving average ratio has been greater than or equal to 1.1079777634259
Signal: -21.88

XOP_D
126-day returns for the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explorers ETF where the Gold-WTI Crude Oil ratio's 60-day to 100-day moving average ratio has been greater than or equal to 1.1079777634259
Signal: -22.33




the Platinum to Gold Ratio | 32 indicators at extremes

VanAurum Analysis

VanAurum has identified a significant relationship between this signal and one or more of the 2-week, 2-month, or 6-month returns for at least one asset. These are shown below, along with the analytics for each:


COPPER_D
126-day returns for Copper where the Platinum to Gold ratio's 95-day net sum of up-days and down-days has been less than or equal to -17.0
Signal: -13.39




Lean Hog futures | 29 indicators at extremes



the VanEck senior gold miners ETF (GDX) | 28 indicators at extremes

VanAurum Analysis

VanAurum has identified a significant relationship between this signal and one or more of the 2-week, 2-month, or 6-month returns for at least one asset. These are shown below, along with the analytics for each:


GOLD_D
42-day returns for Gold where GDX's VaiSi indicator has been greater than or equal to 1.0
Signal: -7.06

SPX_D
126-day returns for the S&P 500 Index where GDX's VaiSi indicator has been greater than or equal to 1.0
Signal: 15.13